Money & banking

What is RBI's policy stance, where are money-market rates, and how fast are bank credit and deposits growing? The policy repo rate is 5.50% (2 Nov 2026); bank credit grew 18.2% on a year earlier in the fortnight to 15 Oct 2026. The banking system's liquidity was in surplus by ₹1.72 lakh crore on 25 Oct 2026, and broad money (M3) grew 16.0% on a year earlier.

Next MPC decision: 4 Dec 2026 (32 days). Last decision (October 5 to 7, 2026): +25 bp to 5.50%, stance calibrated tightening. Calendar →

Week-ended values from RBI's Weekly Statistical Supplement, plus daily readings of RBI's home page since 28 Oct 2026.

RBI's outlook: assumptions and risks

From RBI's Monetary Policy Report – October 2026 (7 Oct 2026). RBI projects CPI inflation at 5.2% in 2026-27 and 5.0% in 2027-28, and real GDP growth at 7.1% in 2026-27 and 7.0% in 2027-28.

Numbers as published by RBI (Tables V.2 and V.3 and section V.4 of the report). The report's model-based results (the scenario model, the fan charts around the projections, the shock decomposition of CPI and the bank-lending model) come from RBI's own models and confidential bank data; see the report itself. The inflation measures RBI uses in the report (trimmed means, weighted median, diffusion) are rebuilt on the Inflation page; its transmission and credit tables are below.

MPC decisions

From the resolution in each set of MPC minutes. Vote: members for and against the rate resolution; since 2025 the minutes also record the size of move each member voted for, and members who backed a different size are noted. The stance is as worded in the minutes; when the minutes don't restate it, the previous meeting's stance is shown. Source: RBI, minutes of the MPC meetings.

Transmission: from the repo rate to bank rates

Change in basis points, all scheduled commercial banks, from the month before the cycle's first rate move to its end (the month before the first move the other way) or the latest month with data. A cycle can include meetings that held the rate. Rates on new loans and deposits move faster than those on the stock, which reprices only as loans and deposits roll over. These match RBI's own transmission table in the Monetary Policy Report (October 2026, Table II.7) for the same months. Source: RBI, Lending and Deposit Rates of Scheduled Commercial Banks (monthly); site calculations.

Liquidity

RBI prints this as net injection (+) / absorption (−); the sign is flipped here so that a surplus is positive. Includes LAF repo and reverse repo (fixed and variable rate), MSF, SDF, standing liquidity facilities and outright open-market operations. Source: RBI, Weekly Statistical Supplement, table 8.

Bank credit and deposits

RBI notes that these data include the effect of a non-bank merging into a bank, which lifts year-on-year growth; see the note in the WSS table.

When the gap is positive, banks are lending out more new money than they take in as deposits and must fund the difference by borrowing, issuing certificates of deposit or selling investments; that is when CD rates tend to rise. Site calculation from RBI's year-on-year changes in the Weekly Statistical Supplement (table 4).

Who is borrowing: credit by sector

Each bar splits a growth rate into the part due to each kind of borrower: the rise in that borrower's loans over the year as a share of the total a year earlier. The parts add up to the growth rate (and match RBI's published growth for personal loans, industry and services). The sector chart covers the four main sectors, which make up about 95% of non-food credit; RBI reports total non-food credit on a different date. Amounts from RBI's monthly Statement 1; the month, a year earlier and two years earlier come from each release.

RBI's monthly Sectoral Deployment of Bank Credit (Statement 1), growth rates as published. Gold loans are left out of the chart because their growth is far larger than the rest; they are in the table. Each release also restates the year-earlier rate.

Money supply

Fortnightly. M3 includes the effect of a non-bank merging into a bank from July 2023 (RBI's note). Source: RBI, Weekly Statistical Supplement, tables 6 and 7.

Commercial paper and certificates of deposit

Certificates of deposit are short-term borrowing by banks; commercial paper is short-term borrowing by companies and non-banks. RBI prints a range of rates for each fortnight, not an average, so the high end can jump with a single small issue by a weaker borrower. Source: RBI, Weekly Statistical Supplement, tables 10 and 11.

Rates, recent weeks