India Macro-Finance TrackerThe rupee: what's moving it
How the rupee moved against the US dollar, and how much of each move its usual drivers account for: other Asian currencies, oil, Indian shares, the dollar, US bond yields and global risk appetite. Updated through the trading day.
Rupees per US dollar: a higher number is a weaker rupee. Market rate from Yahoo Finance (onshore and offshore trading; its day ends at 05:30 IST); FBIL's reference rate is the official 1 pm fixing.
Why it moved
| Change in the rupee's value | Last day 29 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 | Past week 23 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 | Past month 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 | Past 3 months 4 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The rupee | +0.06% strengthened, 95.21 → 95.15 | −0.46% weakened, 94.71 → 95.15 | +0.81% strengthened, 95.93 → 95.15 | +0.19% strengthened, 95.33 → 95.15 |
| Other Asian currencies | +0.00% | −0.04% | +0.03% | +0.31% |
| Oil prices (Brent) | +0.00% | −0.05% | −0.41% | −1.23% |
| Indian shares (Nifty 50) | +0.04% | +0.14% | +0.20% | −0.47% |
| Usual drift | −0.02% | −0.10% | −0.42% | −1.25% |
| Not explained by these factors | +0.04% | −0.42% | +1.42% | +2.83% |
Percentage change in the rupee's value against the dollar (+ = stronger rupee), split into the part each driver accounts for. The parts add up to the rupee's change. "Not explained" covers what these drivers miss: RBI's dealing in the market, importers' and exporters' dollar demand, flows not visible in share prices, and news.
What the drivers did
| Driver | Last day | Past week | Past month | Past 3 months | Link with the rupee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The US dollar (against major currencies) | −0.16% | +0.07% | −0.22% | +1.97% | no reliable link (not used) |
| Other Asian currencies | +0.07% | −0.25% | +0.34% | +2.44% | used |
| Oil prices (Brent) | +2.37% | +0.79% | +13.96% | +39.36% | used |
| Indian shares (Nifty 50) | +0.51% | +1.99% | +2.78% | −6.56% | used |
| US bond yields (ten-year) | −6 bp | −6 bp | −31 bp | +30 bp | no reliable link (not used) |
| Global risk aversion (US VIX) | +2.22 pts | −0.03 pts | +3.03 pts | +2.92 pts | no reliable link (not used) |
Asian currencies: the average of the yuan, won and rupiah against the dollar (+ = stronger). Dollar: the DXY index (+ = stronger dollar). US yields in basis points, VIX in points.
What moved the rupee, week by week
Weekly % change in the rupee's value against the dollar, split by driver; dots show the actual change (+ = stronger rupee)
The trend
USD/INR, market rate
Rupees per US dollar, daily close (a higher rate is a weaker rupee); the last point may be today's live quote
USD/INR, ten years
Rupees per US dollar, daily close
Brent crude
US$ a barrel, front-month future
Nifty 50
Index level, daily close
Asian currencies
Yuan per US dollar (a higher rate is a weaker yuan)
US dollar index (DXY)
The dollar against six major currencies
US ten-year Treasury yield
%
Weekly change in RBI's reserves
US$ billion, change on the previous week (includes valuation changes)
Market prices from Yahoo Finance, shown with attribution only and not offered for download.
Background
| Indicator | Latest | As of | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign portfolio investors, net, last reported day | −$12.9 mn equity −84.2, debt +68.8 | 30 Oct 2026 | Selling by foreign investors means dollars leaving: pressure on the rupee. |
| Foreign portfolio investors, net, month | −₹24,475 crore | Oct 2026 (to date) | The month's direction of portfolio flows. |
| RBI's foreign exchange reserves | $719.7 bn week −1.3, four weeks −27.8 | 23 Oct 2026 | Falling reserves are consistent with RBI selling dollars to steady the rupee; rising, with buying. They also move with valuation (gold, other currencies). |
| India minus US ten-year yield | 2.50 pp | 30 Oct 2026 | The carry: a wider gap makes rupee bonds more attractive to foreign investors. |
| Real effective exchange rate (BIS, broad) | 90.2 −6.0% on a year earlier; five-year average 99.4 | Sep 2026 | Below its average, the rupee is cheap against trading partners after inflation; above, expensive. |
| Merchandise trade balance | −$30.2 bn | Sep 2026 | A wider deficit means more dollar demand from importers. |
How this is worked out
A regression of the rupee's daily % change on the daily changes in its drivers, over the 500 trading days from 25 Nov 2024 to 30 Oct 2026, re-estimated every time the data update. Global drivers enter on the same day and the day before, because US markets close after India's. A driver is kept only if its effect has the expected sign and is statistically clear (t-statistic of at least 1.5); this time global risk aversion (US VIX), the US dollar (against major currencies), US bond yields (ten-year) did not qualify and are left out. The rupee's average drift over the window (−0.42% a month) is shown separately.
Over the window these drivers explain about 11% of daily moves, 19% of weekly moves and 9% of monthly moves. A large unexplained part is normal for a currency the central bank manages: RBI buys and sells dollars to smooth moves, so much of what happens shows up there. The split is a statistical attribution, not proof of cause. Full method: Methods.